Probabilities on the Flop for Five Card Hands
NO STRAIGHT POSSIBLE
After the Flop the Probability (in percent) of Having:
Starting Hand Straight Four of Flush Kind Full House Flush Straight Three of
Kind Two Pair One Pair
Pair FD ND - 0.245 - 0.010 - 0.010 0.980 0.092 0.092 - - 10.77 0.842 - 1.571 — -
1.571 16.16 4.041 4.041 71.84 40.41 40.41
STRAIGHT-DRAWS
After the Flop the Probability (in percent) of Having:
Starting Straight Four of Full Flush Straight Three Two One
Hand Flush Kind House of Kind Pair Pair
Connected - 0.010 0.092 — 1.306 1.571 4.041 40.41
One-gap - 0.010 0.092 - 0.980 1.571 4.041 40.41
Two-gap - 0.010 0.092 - 0.653 1.571 4.041 40.41
Three-gap - 0.010 0.092 - 0.327 1.571 4.041 40.41
STRAIGHT-FLUSH DRAWS
After the Flop the Probability (in percent) of Having:
Starting Hand Straight Flush Four of Kind Full House Flush Straight Three of
Kind Two Pair One Pair
Connected 0.020 0.010 .092 0.821 1.286 1.571 4.041 40.41
One-gap Two-gap Three-gap 0.015 0.010 0.005 0.010 0.010 0.010 .092 .092 .092
0.827 0.832 0.837 0.964 0.643 0.321 1.571 1.571 1.571 4.041 4.041 4.041 40.41
40.41 40.41
Important: All straight draw starting hands with an Ace fall in the three-gap
category because only one straight is possible. The hands AK, AQ, AJ, AT, A5,
A4, A3, A2 all require three specific ranked cards to make the straight, the
same as the hand 9-5. The hands KQ, KJ, 4-2, and 3-2, fall into the two-gap
category because they cannot form straights higher than Ace-high or lower than
Ace-low. For the same reason the hands QJ and 4-3 are in the one-gap category.Pot odds are the ratio of the amount of money in the pot to the amount it costs to stay in the hand.
For example, when you bet $10 to contest a $100 pot, your bet is paid off 10:1 if you win. That ratio (the pot odds)
should be greater than the odds against winning. For a flush-draw with one card to come, the odds are 4:1 against making the flush.
Calling when you are on a flush draw and the pot odds are 10:1 is a good bet. Calling in the same situation when the pot odds are 2:1 is a bad bet. Your odds of winning the hand haven't changed,
but the payoff has, and that should determine the decision. Poker is about winning money, not about winning hands.